Simon Sharpe and Five Times Faster

Why?
To reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to a safe level, humanity must decarbonize five times faster than we are today.

How can we do that?
Perhaps we should think differently about the problem—specifically, how we design policies to change outcomes.

A fault in economic theory
Most economic theories assume the economy is in equilibrium. In reality, economies are dynamic and constantly in flux. By leaning into this reality, we can accelerate the transition. Through case studies and a rethinking of economic paradigms, Simon Sharpe shows how we can transform the economy five times faster.

The starting point
We need to shift from prediction to risk assessment. When we do, it becomes clear that unchecked climate change imposes extraordinary risks on humanity due to feedback loops and tipping points such as the the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the ice–albedo feedback from melting ice, and permafrost thaw releasing greenhouse gases. The good news is the economy has feedbacks and tipping points too. And therein lies the hope.

Feedbacks
Policy design should amplify positive feedbacks. For example, the cap-and-trade systems create dampening feedbacks and tend to underperform, while a carbon tax with rebates creates amplifying feedbacks and is far more effective.

Targeted subsidies
Early in an economic transition, targeted subsidies are essential. We must create the new before we dismantle the old or stated another way, build first, then break. The fact is early resistance is high, but increasing demand lowers prices over time. Solar adoption in China and Pakistan is a clear example of this dynamic.

Regulations
Governments can enact regulations that force businesses to innovate in order to remain competitive. Necessity is the truly the mother of invention. Government regulations reallocate capital within firms, driving change. Zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates are a strong example of how policy can accelerate the transition from gas-powered to electric vehicles.

Taxes
Simon begins by examining the social cost of carbon, which is astronomically high because human extinction is a possibility, making it difficult to operationalize. Moreover, there is no absolute value—prices are socially constructed. Instead, he reframes the issue in terms of relative cost.

He illustrates this with examples. A fixed carbon tax removed coal from the electricity sector in the United Kingdom eight times faster than the global average. Norway offers another case: by combining EV subsidies with taxes on gasoline vehicles, electric vehicles became cost-competitive at the point of purchase. In both cases, it was the price of the new technology relative to fossil fuel alternatives that drove rapid change. Crucially, taxation is most effective when applied at the midpoint of the transition.

Taxes should also be sector-specific. In Canada, this is evident in the industrial carbon price, as well as the now-cancelled consumer carbon rebate program, both of which targeted specific sectors.

Everything, together
R&D, public procurement, mandates, regulations, subsidies, taxes, and bans must all be used together and strategically leveraged over time. The sequence matters. Overall: build first, then break.

Diplomacy
In a static, equilibrium-based economy, burden-sharing emissions reductions is a negative-sum game.  Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation that involves two competing entities, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other. Nobody wants to lose or pay the piper.

History shows that progress accelerates when a coalition of the willing moves first. The data are clear: a global transition to a clean energy future is achievable with cooperative leadership from Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, China, and California-aligned U.S. states. Once these actors tip key sectors onto the steep part of the S-curve, others will follow, not out of altruism, but because the economics change and participation becomes advantageous.

The S-Curve
The real economy is dynamic, not static. When clean technologies enter the steep portion of the S-curve—where deployment accelerates, costs fall rapidly through learning and scale, and complementary systems mature—emissions reductions become a positive-sum outcome. Each additional adopter expands markets, lowers costs globally, and increases the returns to cooperation.

To focus on that S-curve, we must:

• Act sector by sector
• Build coalitions of the willing
• Prioritize immediate action, recognizing that the future is uncertain and elections intervene

Under these conditions, diplomacy shifts from negotiating burden-sharing to coordinating acceleration. The strategic task is no longer how to divide costs, but how to move together quickly enough to capture shared economic, technological, and climate benefits.

By rethinking how the economy works and realistically leveraging pressure points, and cooperating we can accelerate the transition of the economy.