Trends Observed in Recent Provincial Elections in Canada (two pager)

Laser Talk: Trends Observed in Recent Provincial Elections in Canada

Summary

In the autumn of 2024, four provinces in Canada had elections. Key trends observed were:  

1. Provincial parties that used the “axe-the-tax” disinformation rhetoric saw a decline in support, particularly in urban areas (examples Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and British Columbia). 
2. Provincial parties that removed revenue neutrality and introduced means-testing for pollution pricing rebates lost votes, especially in rural areas (example British Columbia).
3. Provincial conservative parties that distanced themselves from the axe-the-tax disinformation campaign fared well (example Nova Scotia).
4. A clear rural-urban divide exists, with rural ridings leaning  “conservative”.

The rural-urban divide is fueled by several factors, including the decline of accountable media (newspapers, radio, TV), which is especially pronounced outside big urban centres. This, combined with the spread of disinformation about pollution pricing on unaccountable social media platforms which deepens the divide. Adding to this is the ongoing perception in smaller, rural, and remote communities that their voices are being overlooked.

Caveat: The trends observed are correlative. There is no direct causal link between the election results and the Canada Carbon Rebate. All elections are influenced by multiple policies, parties and personalities. This is a simplified summary of the actual 2024 results for the dominant provincial parties in relation to their position on the Canada Carbon Rebate. 

CCL Canada’s Solutions 

• Continue sending media releases, op eds and letters to editors—media outlets need our voices.
• Empower Canadians living in remote and rural regions to join us.
• Intentionally uplift the voices of people outside of the “big” Canadian cities.
• Support public policies that enhance media literacy and bring stronger, accountable media to communities outside the big urban centres. 
• Create honest and empowering posts about pollution pricing for social media.
• Lobby the federal government to counter the disinformation on pollution pricing.
• Make the move to Bluesky social media site. It is democratic with algorithms you can personally tailor. It can never be “owned” by the billionaires and nor become a rampant source of disinformation because they will never allow ads, they have moderation services and you own your feed and followers. 

Together, we can close the media gap and ensure climate solutions resonate everywhere.

The Details

In the fall of 2024, four Canadian provinces held general elections, each resulting in significant political outcomes. The source of the election data and images are from Wikipedia. 

New Brunswick (October 21, 2024): The Liberal Party, headed by Susan Holt, achieved a majority government, unseating the Progressive Conservatives led by Premier Blaine Higgs, who also lost his seat.
Population ≈ 851,000

Saskatchewan (October 28): The Saskatchewan Party won a 5th consecutive majority, though with a reduced margin and a significant number of seats lost in the two major cities in Saskatchewan: Saskatoon and Regina.
Population ≈ 1.2 millon

British Columbia (October 19): The New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Premier David Eby, secured a narrow majority, maintaining their governance since 2017. The Conservative Party of British Columbia, under John Rustad, made substantial gains, while BC United withdrew from the race to prevent vote splitting.
Population ≈ 5.6 million

Nova Scotia (November 26): The Progressive Conservative Party, under Premier Tim Houston, was re-elected with a supermajority, increasing its seat count.
Population ≈ 1.1 million

 Canada, Disinformation and Accountable vs Unaccountable Media

Canadians have been exposed to a significant disinformation campaign about pricing pollution from fossil fuels on the unregulated and thus unaccountable social media platforms. Most egregious is the claim that pollution pricing is a driver of inflation which has been clearly refuted by economists published by Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission.

Investigative journalists in Canada uncovered significant amounts of money being spent on misleading Facebook and Instagram ads in the past year.

Adding to this, the government of Canada has done a poor job of informing the public about their rebates. As well, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party has a policy of not promoting key government programs. CCL Canada has been lobbying for them to do more to counter the pollution pricing disinformation and they have but more work needs to be done by the government to protect us all. This will be one of CCL Canada’s key lobbying asks in 2025.

Furthermore, the decline of media outlets in rural Canada has accelerated over the past decade, with 169 local media outlets closing between 2008 and 2016 and many others reducing services, particularly after 2017 with the asset swap between Torstar and Postmedia. This trend worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic, as Postmedia closed 15 community newspapers and SaltWire Network on the East Coast suspended weekly publications.

Good things are happening for your notes. CBC is expanding local and regional news coverage across Canada using funds collected from Google to fund the news programs.